Geographer Mark Serreze predicts outcome of Arctic melt

Coming in at #60 on Discover magazine's Top 100 science stories of 2009 is Mark Serreze, a geographer that states that the Arctic will be ice-free during the summer as early as 2030.

Since 1979, satellites have measured the extent of Arctic sea ice accurately, giving us a view of change. The region has lost 40 percent of its ice since the 70s, he says.

The ice will still be there in the winter, but during the summer, the area will be free of obstacles. On the upside, this means Japanese cars will be able to make it to the East Coast quicker and cheaper, but the downsides far outweigh any economic advantages it may incur.

And there's no going back.

Things we have to "look forward to":

1). Cascading effects through the food chain, from predators to plankton.

2). Coastal erosion. Villages in Alaska and coastal Siberia are slowly falling into the sea.

3). Weather. Normally waves caused by storms are dampened by Arctic ice. This will no longer be the case and waves will just get bigger and more likely to cause damage. See #2.

4). Rising temperatures. Ice normally reflects a lot of sunlight back into space. With it gone, the seas will absorb much of that solar energy, causing further warming trends and playing more havoc with the weather. Citrus crops in Florida may be safe from freezing but winter wheat, which relies on precipitation from snow, will take a hit.

5). Water supply. The western US relies on melting snow for much of its water supply. No snow, no water.

6). Carbon cycle. This is a biggie. As permafrost thaws, carbon deposits from millenia old plants and animals will defrost, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere in an ever-warning feedback loop. There is growing evidence that the effect will be quite strong.

7). Loss of species. While humans are supremely adaptable, many species are not. Say good-bye to even more of them.

As Dr. Serreze says, "We're looking at a different world. That world is coming fast, and the Arctic is leading the way."

Sorting out soot

Common soot from things such as cooking fires is one of the main culprits of climate change. Fortunately, it is also very easily combated.

In the September issue of Discover magazine, the subject of soot is dissected by Peter Fairley.

You see, CO2 is not the only bad guy when it come to ice loss. Common soot, aka black carbon is doing its fair share of damage. It comes from engines, power plants and forest/field clearing as well as the aforementioned open cookstoves of developing countries.

Unlike light-colored sulfates produced by combustion that reflect sunlight and therefore help cool somewhat, soot is is black, settles and absorbs sunlight, heating it and melting any ice it is resting upon.

(Here's where I say to the denialists: "Now tell me humans have nothing to do with rising temperatures and the shrinking of our planet's ice shields." Read on.)

Although sulfates do lend themselves to cooling, measures enacted in the 1970s to combat acid rain have minimized this effect. Worse, when soot and sulfates combine in the atmosphere, they absorb sunlight and enhance the warming effect.

Soot primarily affects the northern hemisphere; the ramifications in Antarctica are negligible because there are almost no major population centers anywhere near it (ahem, denialists?)

It is a different story in the Arctic, however. As the ice cap shrinks, more ships can sail through the waters, adding more soot and shrinking the ice cap further in a positive feedback loop (nothing positive about that). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the Arctic could contain year-round shipping lanes by 2030.

"Then again," according to the article, "by 2030 soot emissions may largely be a thing of the past. Capturing soot is a lot easier than controlling carbon dioxide."

Automakers are even now phasing in "baghouse filters" that act as particle traps, cutting tailpipe emissions from diesel engines.

The positive (this time for real) impact on climate would practically occur overnight because soot has a short life span. CO2, apparently, stays in the atmosphere for quite some time. The article states that the "tiny amount of CO2 relaeased when Thomas Edison cranked up his pathbreaking Pearl Street generator in Manhattan is still circulating 127 years later (yipes! and another reason to refute Edison's so-called "genius.")

And the EPA has already stated in May that "'Eliminating black carbon can immediately slow down the loss of Arctic ice.'"

Hillary Clinton, NASA's James Hansen (the New Yorker's "catastrophist") and Al Gore have all called for immediate action against black soot and Congress is considering legislation aimed at reducing it.

This is good, VERY GOOD, news.

Or, to put it in the words of Fairley:

"In the war on climate change, tackling black carbon may be a relatively simple and powerful fix."

And hopefully one that will be free of the usual political wrangling.

Astronaut laments loss of polar ice, glaciers

Bob Thirsk, an astronaut two months into his six months stint on the International Space Station has noticed some changes on our globe.

From Reuters and Yahoo!News:

"A Canadian astronaut aboard the International Space Station said on Sunday it looks like Earth's ice caps have melted a bit since he was last in orbit 12 years ago.

...He is mostly in awe when he looks out the window, particularly at the sliver of atmosphere wrapped around the planet.

"'It's a very thin veil of atmosphere around the Earth that keeps us alive,' Thirsk said during an in-flight news conference. 'Most of the time when I look out the window I'm in awe. But there are some effects of the human destruction of the Earth as well.'

'This is probably just a perception, but I just have the feeling that the glaciers are melting, the snow capping the mountains is less than it was 12 years ago when I saw it last time,' Thrisk said. 'That saddens me a little bit.'"

No, Bob, that is not just a perception, but I'm sure the denialists appreciate your political neutrality.

NOAA Reports Record Ocean Surface Temperatures for June

From Global Warming is Real via Environmental News:

Article by Thomas Schueneman

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reported findings of preliminary analysis from the agency's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina that shows global ocean surface temperatures for June broke the previous record set in 2005.

The combined average global/land and ocean surface temperature for June was the second warmest on record, 1.12 degrees Fahrenheit (0.62 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average of 59.9 degrees F.

Ocean surface temperatures for June '09 were the warmest on record, 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degrees C) above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F.

The global land surface temperature for June was 1.26 degrees F above the 20th century average, and the sixth warmest June on record.

Research using data released earlier this month from a NASA's Ice, Cloud, and Land Satellite (ICESat) show that Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically between 2004 and 2008. Data from the satellite allows scientists to measure thickness and volume of ice, where previously researchers could only measure area to determine Arctic sea ice cover and extent.

According to the study, released earlier this month in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, researchers at NASA and the University of Washington found that Arctic sea ice thinned by seven inches a year, some 2.2 feet over four winters. Thicker, older ice that survives one or more summers shrank by 42%, or 595,000 square miles, almost an area the size of Alaska's land mass.

The older and thicker ice is less vulnerable to summer melt than thinner ice, and this remaining "mature" ice has not been sufficient to offset the ice loss during the summer melt season, leading to more open water, which absorbs more heat, further warming the oceans and accelerating more sea ice loss. The observed decline in sea ice thickness is attributed to recent warming and anomalies in patterns of sea ice circulation.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder Colorado published a study last April with similar findings, showing a polar ice cap that is thinner than ever recorded and maximum sea ice extent at an all-time low.

U.S. researchers now warn that the Arctic could be nearly ice-free within 30 years. Not long ago, scientists projected an iceless Arctic wouldn't occur before the end of the 21st century.

Deny that while you're drowing.