Coming in at #60 on Discover magazine's Top 100 science stories of 2009 is Mark Serreze, a geographer that states that the Arctic will be ice-free during the summer as early as 2030.
Since 1979, satellites have measured the extent of Arctic sea ice accurately, giving us a view of change. The region has lost 40 percent of its ice since the 70s, he says.
The ice will still be there in the winter, but during the summer, the area will be free of obstacles. On the upside, this means Japanese cars will be able to make it to the East Coast quicker and cheaper, but the downsides far outweigh any economic advantages it may incur.
And there's no going back.
Things we have to "look forward to":
1). Cascading effects through the food chain, from predators to plankton.
2). Coastal erosion. Villages in Alaska and coastal Siberia are slowly falling into the sea.
3). Weather. Normally waves caused by storms are dampened by Arctic ice. This will no longer be the case and waves will just get bigger and more likely to cause damage. See #2.
4). Rising temperatures. Ice normally reflects a lot of sunlight back into space. With it gone, the seas will absorb much of that solar energy, causing further warming trends and playing more havoc with the weather. Citrus crops in Florida may be safe from freezing but winter wheat, which relies on precipitation from snow, will take a hit.
5). Water supply. The western US relies on melting snow for much of its water supply. No snow, no water.
6). Carbon cycle. This is a biggie. As permafrost thaws, carbon deposits from millenia old plants and animals will defrost, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere in an ever-warning feedback loop. There is growing evidence that the effect will be quite strong.
7). Loss of species. While humans are supremely adaptable, many species are not. Say good-bye to even more of them.
As Dr. Serreze says, "We're looking at a different world. That world is coming fast, and the Arctic is leading the way."
Since 1979, satellites have measured the extent of Arctic sea ice accurately, giving us a view of change. The region has lost 40 percent of its ice since the 70s, he says.
The ice will still be there in the winter, but during the summer, the area will be free of obstacles. On the upside, this means Japanese cars will be able to make it to the East Coast quicker and cheaper, but the downsides far outweigh any economic advantages it may incur.
And there's no going back.
Things we have to "look forward to":
1). Cascading effects through the food chain, from predators to plankton.
2). Coastal erosion. Villages in Alaska and coastal Siberia are slowly falling into the sea.
3). Weather. Normally waves caused by storms are dampened by Arctic ice. This will no longer be the case and waves will just get bigger and more likely to cause damage. See #2.
4). Rising temperatures. Ice normally reflects a lot of sunlight back into space. With it gone, the seas will absorb much of that solar energy, causing further warming trends and playing more havoc with the weather. Citrus crops in Florida may be safe from freezing but winter wheat, which relies on precipitation from snow, will take a hit.
5). Water supply. The western US relies on melting snow for much of its water supply. No snow, no water.
6). Carbon cycle. This is a biggie. As permafrost thaws, carbon deposits from millenia old plants and animals will defrost, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere in an ever-warning feedback loop. There is growing evidence that the effect will be quite strong.
7). Loss of species. While humans are supremely adaptable, many species are not. Say good-bye to even more of them.
As Dr. Serreze says, "We're looking at a different world. That world is coming fast, and the Arctic is leading the way."
